,hill) — As Tuesday’s midterm election ends, attention will turn to the 2024 presidential race.
On the Democratic side, President Joe Biden has said he intends to run for re-election – although a very bad night for Democrats on Tuesday would put it in serious doubt.
Greater intrigue will be on the Republican side.
Axios reported Friday that former President Donald Trump is considering launching a 2024 bid on November 14. Regardless of whether Trump runs, there are plenty of other people in the GOP with White House dreams.
Here are the current top ten contenders — a list that could easily be shaken by unexpected results on Tuesday.
Former President Donald Trump
Trump is leading the way as he enters the race. Virtually every national poll shows him with a healthy lead over any other contender and for all the controversy he has brought, he remains popular among Republican voters.
An Economist-YouGov poll released last week, which showed he is viewed favorably by 70 percent of Republican voters, also showed the downside.
His compatibility among the masses at large is serious. According to the survey, fifty-five percent of adults view her unfavorably, while only 38 percent view her favorably.
In the immediate future, there is a very real possibility that Trump will be charged with sensitive documents confiscated by the FBI from his Mar-a-Lago property. Other investigations continue into the January 6, 2021, uprising and attempts to reverse the 2020 election in Georgia.
On Tuesday, many eyes will be on controversial Trump-backed Senate candidates such as Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania and Herschel Walker in Georgia, as well as Arizona’s gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake. His fate will be seen as a decision by proxy on Trump himself.
It’s hard to see anyone beat Trump for the GOP nomination, if he wants to.
But there are also big questions that are not going away.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis
DeSantis should cruise on Tuesday for re-election on his Democratic challenger, former Representative Charlie Crist.
However, their margin of victory will be significant.
A resounding victory in a national battlefield would be powerful evidence of DeSantis’ election potential—even if he draws the fury of Democrats and liberals for his policies on immigration, voting rights and education, among other topics.
As of Sunday evening, DeSantis led Crist, himself a former governor, by 11.5 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average.
If Trump unexpectedly refuses to enter the race, DeSantis will immediately become the favorite.
If Trump launches a campaign as expected, DeSantis is certainly the only person in the GOP who has any real chance of defeating him.
Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas)
Polls indicate that Trump and DeSantis are well clear of others in the potential field for the 2024 GOP nomination.
Cruz, who was Trump’s most serious opponent in 2016, is perhaps the best among the rest.
He is a staunch conservative, a powerful fundraiser, and a high national profile.
The 2016 primary campaign was a bitter one, culminating in Cruz notably supporting Trump at that year’s Republican National Convention.
Cruz has since treated Trump well for the most part. But recently he has gone out of that way on the spot.
Just last week, he complained about the former president not spending enough money to support GOP candidates in the midterm.
“I wish Trump was spending some of his money,” Cruzsaid on his podcast, “Trump has got $100 million and is spending almost none to support these candidates.”
Cruz has been overtaken by DeSantis as Trump’s main alternative, but he could still make some progress.
Virginia Gov. Glen Youngkin
Youngkin thrilled party insiders with his victory over Democrat Terry McAuliffe last year, becoming governor of a state Biden scored 10 points in 2020.
Youngkin’s fans were enthralled not only by the fact that he won but the way he did it – with a campaign that neither fully embraced nor rejected Trump, and parental rights in education. emphasized.
Some saw the Youngkin campaign as a blueprint for a victorious Republican campaign in the post-Trump era.
But if Youngkin has high ambitions, he faces questions about his relative lack of political experience — and the fact that it’s not quite clear that the post-Trump era has just begun.
Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
Pompeo has been the most open about his presidential ambitions.
“We’ve got a team in Iowa, a team in New Hampshire and South Carolina. And it’s not spontaneous. We’re doing the work that will be done to get ready,” he said at a September event in Chicago.
“We’re trying to figure out if this is the next place for us to serve,” he said, citing the White House.
Pompeo’s tenure as Secretary of State gives him some pride and authority.
But it’s much more questionable whether he has the charisma to go all the way — or whether there’s a significant pro-Pompeo camp anywhere in the GOP.
Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley
As governor of South Carolina, Haley was widely seen as a gifted politician. As the daughter of the Indian diaspora, she was also seen as a symbol of a new, more inclusive GOP.
Haley is a compelling figure, but her political position in relation to Trump has caused her problems.
Although she served as the US ambassador to the United Nations during her tenure, she too abruptly left and is viewed with suspicion by some in the former president’s inner circle.
Haley caused a stir in the immediate aftermath of the January 6 uprising, when she was critical of Trump in a closed-door meeting with members of the Republican National Committee, saying her conduct between the election and the riots was “historic”. will be judged harshly by
Later, she became more supportive again. She has indicated that she will not be a candidate in 2024 if Trump does enter the race.
“Every time she criticizes me, she criticizes me about 15 minutes later,” Trump told Vanity Fair in September 2021.
Former Vice President Mike Pence
Trump’s former deputy is doing much of what has traditionally been a presidential campaign – delivering big speeches, endorsing candidates and generally trying to position himself as a key figure within the GOP. make demands.
The problem for Pence is very simple – and hard to overcome.
Pro-Trump hardliners don’t like that because they – rightly so – upheld the 2020 election results. And those who praise him for his conduct in this regard do not equate to a large constituency in today’s GOP.
In a YouGov-University of Massachusetts poll in October, Trump won 53 percent and DeSantis 29 percent.
Pence was far behind with 6 percent.
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott
Abbott is not generally viewed as the top tier of presidential contenders, although some Texas insiders believe he has a more optimistic view of his chances.
Abbott will probably strengthen his side on Tuesday. He is expected to comfortably defeat former representative Beto O’Rourke (D). Abbott is about nine points ahead of the RCP average. Assuming he defeats O’Rourke, it will likely put an end to the Democrats’ bright hopes for a higher office.
Still, Abbott’s projected victory would come in a more secure Republican state than DeSantis’s Florida.
While the governor of Texas is a capable politician, it’s hard to see how he crosses off some of the higher figures on this list.
There has been gossip in the media and in political circles for some time as to whether Carlson can retain political ambitions.
On the one hand, a presidential campaign seems highly improbable.
On the other hand, if Trump doesn’t move, there will be a gap in the market for a TV star with provocative and inflammatory tastes.
Carlson, whose Fox News shows regularly attract more than 3 million viewers, has a readymade fanbase.
Representative Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.)
Our tenth Republican is a hoax for this list, compiling figures for the 10 most likely to be the GOP’s nominee for president at least in 2024.
Cheney is not going to be the Republican nominee.
Trump’s fierce GOP foe on Capitol Hill lost his August primary to Harriet Heijman, the former presidential pick, in a landslide.
But Cheney has been clear about his mission to prevent Trump from ever holding a high office again.
She will leave Congress in January but a “spoiler” — or an independent bid — for the GOP nomination can’t be ruled out.